Did a poker sesh with my friends last night and my first hand – bullets (AA).
I did a high pre-flop raise (30% of my stack) and then 3 people got in.
Flop showed a king of clubs, spades and hearts.
There was a possible flush draw too and a straight draw so I went all in.
My friend, did the same.
She had two spades and only needed one to complete it.
I was ahead. Probably odds of 60-40.
Turn was an irrelevant diamond.
At this point, the odds are at 80-20, in my favor.
My friend got her spade and won.
It didn’t hurt me. I played the hand properly. The odds were in MY favor. She also played her hand well. (Her risk appetite is bigger than mine.)
If you know poker enough to easily compute the % of winning, its less likely to regret your decisions.
Just like in business.
Nothing is really sure. But the more you know and the more experience you get, you get to avoid most of the mistakes.
Play by the rules and you might not win super big at first, but you develop your instinct so you’ll incur less mistakes and be prepared to play big.
In poker, I have some basic rules:
- play only high connectors
- 8 or better
- Ace and rags only okay if suited and less than 3x big blind raise
- only bet at the turn at upwards of 27% probability
- don’t bluff
- lie about not bluffing (lol)
In business, I have the same:
- only start profit-first, capital-independent businesses
- require upfront payment for everything
- court suppliers to delay payments (but pay regularly)
- reputation > revenue
- don’t bluff
- lie about not bluffing
And there will be times when you’ll get lucky.
Or just like in poker, you’ll get a bad beat.
That is why it’s important to work on your instincts first.
Everyone who diversifies their businesses finds that it gets easier and easier to start a new one. Even if the new ones are unrelated to the old ones.
Play by the rules first, so when it’s time, you can break them and beat the odds.